Canterbury's population

Population growth (or decline), age structure and distribution (spread), and the number and type of households and families in our cities, towns and communities affect:

• demand for local services and the willingness and ability of ratepayers to pay for them
• representation and participation in local democracy
• interactions between human activity and the natural environment.

Improvements in life expectancy and decreases in birth rates result in a greater number of older people, and a higher median age (more older people than younger people). This affects:

• the size of the workforce, including the availability of young people entering the workforce and expectations of ‘working age’
• the kind of services needed – and ability to pay for them
• local authorities’ own workforce.

• Since 1996, population growth in the Canterbury Region reached a high of 2.8% in the year to June 2023 and a low of -1.5% in the year to June 2011. In the last two decades, Canterbury’s population change has been influenced by the Canterbury earthquakes (2010-11) and the COVID pandemic (2020-21).

• In 2011, the total population in Christchurch City declined by 3.7% (14,000 people) due to net migration as a consequence of the Canterbury earthquakes. In the same period, Selwyn District grew by 4.6% (1,900 people) and Waimakariri District grew by 3.8% (1,800 people). Two-thirds of people who moved from the most damaged areas stayed in the same territorial authority.

   

• By June 2016, Christchurch City’s estimated resident population (375,000) was close to the estimated resident population of 376,700 at 30 June 2010. Christchurch City’s population has now exceeded pre-earthquake levels.

• Over the last couple of decades, the Selwyn District has experienced population growth exceeding national averages and is one of the fastest-growing districts in New Zealand. Between 2018 and 2024, Selwyn’s population increased by 5.1 per cent a year.

• International travel restrictions due to COVID-19 had a significant impact on net migration in New Zealand and, therefore, population growth. In the year to June 2021, there was a population growth of 1% (6,700 people) in Canterbury and 0.2% (12,200) in New Zealand. In the previous year (June 2020), population growth was 2.2% (13,600 people) in Canterbury and 2.1% (102,100 people) in New Zealand. In the year to June 2023, population growth in Canterbury exceeded pre-COVID levels, with a population growth of 2.8% (total population 18,300 people). Population growth in the Canterbury region averaged 1.7% over the 5 years to 2024.

• The estimated resident population of Canterbury on 30 June 2024 was 687,100 people.
• Canterbury has 13% of New Zealand’s population, is the most populous region in the South Island and the second most populous region in New Zealand (after Auckland).
• Over half (55%) of the South Island’s population live in Canterbury.
• 82% of Canterbury’s estimated resident population live in Greater Christchurch (Christchurch City, Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts).
• The population of Canterbury is projected to grow by, on average, 0.8% per year between 2018 and 2048, at the same rate of growth as New Zealand's total population.
• One in four people in Canterbury will be aged 65 years or over by 2048. The median age is projected to increase from 38 years in 2018 to 45 years in 2048 – higher than the median age for New Zealand as a whole (44 years in 2048).

• In 2023, there were 254, 220 households (occupied private dwellings) – this is projected to increase to 298,000 by 2043 – an average annual increase of 1.0% on the medium projection series (2018-base).
• All Canterbury TAs will have more one-person households in 2043 than in 2018, mainly due to the increasing number of people at older ages.
• Couple-without-children is the most common family type. Growth in the number of couples whose children have left the family home is expected to be significant as the large number of people born during the 1950s–70s reach older ages.

• Canterbury has a higher percentage of people who identify as European than New Zealand as a whole, and a smaller percentage of people who identify as Māori, Pacific, Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American and African (MELAA)
• Christchurch City has the most ethnically diverse population in Canterbury
• Māori and Pacific populations in Canterbury have a markedly younger age structure than the total population, due to higher birth rates
• 25% of people in Canterbury were born overseas. 43% of these had been living in New Zealand for less than ten years at the time of the 2023 Census.
• The most common birthplace for overseas-born people living in Canterbury in 2023 was Asia (39%), followed by Europe (31%). Over three-quarters of those born in Europe stated the United Kingdom or Ireland as their birthplace.
• Just under 80,000 people in Canterbury stated iwi affiliation in the 2023 Census. This is almost a 60% increase in iwi affiliation stated from the 2013 Census. 24,500people stating iwi affiliation in Canterbury affiliated with Ngāi Tahu/Kai Tahu. 85,000 people in New Zealand stated affiliation with Ngāi Tahu/Kai Tahuin the 2023 Census.